Climate · emissions beyond borders
Since 2022, Portugal has caused more emissions abroad than at home
Emissions from Portuguese consumption are falling, as long as they happen in Portugal. The emissions in factories, power plants and fields elsewhere, for goods, food and buildings, are barely falling. Portugal's Climate Framework Law doesn't count them.
- The footprint of Portugal is 29–32 percent higher than official emissions according to the national inventory (via Eurostat). Exactly how much depends on the model.
- 51–53 percent of the footprint arises abroad (2022), against 42–45 percent in 2010. Since 2022 it has been more than half in every model.
- Official emissions fell by 19 percent between 2010 and 2022; the footprint by 17–20 percent.
- Per person, Portugal causes 6.5 tonnes, less than the EU average of 9.0 tonnes (rank 27 of 27, Eurostat 2023). Between 2010 and 2019 the footprint fell by 18 percent, faster than in most EU countries; between 2019 and 2023 it fell by 10 percent, similar to most EU countries.
- Outside Portugal, most emissions for Portuguese consumption are released in Spain, China and Brazil.
- Portugal imports more emissions than it exports: 14–17 megatonnes net in 2022. Since 2010, what it earns from foreign demand grew by 65 percent (real); the emissions for it rose by 20 percent.
- Satellites see more methane over Portugal than the country reports: 1.3× the reported amount (2023).
In short
Emissions caused by Portuguese consumption and investment, by location
The official figure and the footprint
The figure in the news is emissions on Portuguese territory, according to the national inventory (via Eurostat). It fell by 19 percent between 2010 and 2022. The footprint fell by 17–20 percent over the same years. The official figure counts emissions for what is exported, but not for what is imported.
Portugal compared with the other EU countries
Per person, Portugal causes 6.5 tonnes of greenhouse gas (Eurostat, 2023), less than the EU average of 9.0 tonnes, rank 27 of 27.
Checked from space
Satellites measure how much methane hangs in the air. From that, scientists can work back to how much a country emits. That puts an independent measurement next to the official figures.
Where the emissions occur
For Portuguese consumption, most emissions abroad occur in Spain, followed by China, Brazil and Germany. Pick a year or play the timeline. Click a country to see how it changed since 2010.
Who Portugal emits for
In 2022, 23–24 megatonnes of greenhouse gases were released in Portugal for consumption and investment in other countries. Meanwhile, 38–40 megatonnes were released elsewhere for Portuguese consumption. That makes Portugal a net importer of emissions: 14–17 megatonnes more are released elsewhere for Portugal than the other way round.
How we calculate
A footprint follows every euro that households, government and companies spend on final products back through the supply chain, to the country where the emissions occur. So-called input-output models do this, built on trade statistics and emission inventories from dozens of countries.