Climate · emissions beyond borders
Estonia cut its emissions at home by 31 to 33 percent. Abroad, they rose by 33 to 74 percent.
Emissions from Estonian consumption are falling, as long as they happen in Estonia. The emissions in factories, power plants and fields elsewhere, for goods, food and buildings, are rising. Climate targets don't count them.
- The footprint of Estonia is 14–18 percent higher than official emissions according to the national inventory (via Eurostat). Exactly how much depends on the model.
- 47–52 percent of the footprint arises abroad (2022), against 29–32 percent in 2010.
- Official emissions fell by 33 percent between 2010 and 2022; the footprint only by 2–11 percent.
- Per person, Estonia causes 9.3 tonnes, more than the EU average of 9.0 tonnes (rank 13 of 27, Eurostat 2023). Between 2010 and 2019 the footprint fell by 12 percent, similar to most EU countries; between 2019 and 2023 it fell by 20 percent, faster than in most EU countries.
- Outside Estonia, most emissions for Estonian consumption are released in Russia, China and Poland.
- Estonia imports more emissions than it exports: 1 megatonnes net in 2022. Since 2010, what it earns from foreign demand grew by 52 percent (real); the emissions for it fell by 34 percent.
In short
Emissions caused by Estonian consumption and investment, by location
The official figure falls faster than the footprint
The figure in the news is emissions on Estonian territory, according to the national inventory (via Eurostat). It fell by 33 percent between 2010 and 2022. The footprint fell by 2–11 percent over the same years. The official figure counts emissions for what is exported, but not for what is imported.
Estonia compared with the other EU countries
Per person, Estonia causes 9.3 tonnes of greenhouse gas (Eurostat, 2023), more than the EU average of 9.0 tonnes, rank 13 of 27.
Checked from space
Satellites measure how much methane hangs in the air. From that, scientists can work back to how much a country emits. That puts an independent measurement next to the official figures.
Where the emissions occur
For Estonian consumption, most emissions abroad occur in Russia, followed by China, Poland and Finland. Pick a year or play the timeline. Click a country to see how it changed since 2010.
Who Estonia emits for
In 2022, 7 megatonnes of greenhouse gases were released in Estonia for consumption and investment in other countries. Meanwhile, 8 megatonnes were released elsewhere for Estonian consumption. That makes Estonia a net importer of emissions: 1 megatonnes more are released elsewhere for Estonia than the other way round.
How we calculate
A footprint follows every euro that households, government and companies spend on final products back through the supply chain, to the country where the emissions occur. So-called input-output models do this, built on trade statistics and emission inventories from dozens of countries.